I dare anyone to tell me they have not seen a news report about Putin being weak or Putin’s reputation damaged because of the recent “chaos” in Russia. How did this narrative take hold? It’s all bullshit. This head of Wagner group (No, I’m not going to learn to spell his cursed name!=) we will simply refer to as Joker, and explain why.
The telltale sign that I am right about this is if thousands of Wagner scum join Joker in Belarus! Simply said: If the Wagner Group had suddenly decided to bivouac in Belarus, alarm bells would scream in Kiev; in the Pentagon; in NATO Headquarters. A new front in east Ukraine would be possible – obviously! No, these are gangsters we’re dealing with. Putin has shown he’s willing to try new tactics, regardless of lives. Why not a whole charade of a Putsch in the Kremlin, a march on Moscow? Who knew about Joker’s plan? It was top Russian generals who would be enthusiastic about a new tactic. Top generals who are only a call from the Kremlin. But didn’t people get killed, real Russian soldiers? Yes, absolutely necessary to make the plot believable. So obvious for Russians it could be scripted. This is an army that sends poorly trained conscripts out in open battle with no chance whatsoever, just to pinpoint where Ukrainian troops have their machine guns placed. In reality, Wagner forces, vehicles are already well on the way to Belarus. Without this whole ruse, everyone would be aware and speculating about a massive Wagner forces relocation.
Another reason for a plausible basis to send Wagner to a country, Belarus, per secret agreement w/Putin is that country might be ripe for … social unrest. Putin already has had to send in troops to Belarus to hold up this clown president. This time it is Wagner and nobody even notices. But for the Russian side, this is better. Wagner specializes in terror, brutality, efficiency. The longer the war goes on, the more restless the people in Belarus become. It may take that brutality to keep Belarus in check. Maybe Putin really was scared of the Joker as a legitimate threat and is giving him Ukraine as consolation prize? We don’t think so. The Joker always lauds Putin in glamorous terms. The Joker just wants (present term!=) a bigger role in the Russian military gravy train. He initially wanted the jobs of the two lackeys that Putin has in charge of the military. These two scapegoats will eventually be blamed anyway when Russia loses.
But – to end on a really negative note – it all doesn’t matter really! Peter Zeihan talks a lot about these choke points into Russia & how Russia is now trying to go out and secure them. These are mostly gaps in landscape not conducive for tank movement. But why not build a barrier? If the Russians blow up the biggest nuclear plant in Europe, located deep in Ukraine, the whole country of Ukraine (& some) will become a radioactive buffer zone to Moscow. Extreme, but concisely efficient. Please realize that Putin realizes it is over for him anywhere outside of the Kremlin. If he didn’t become Peter the Great incarnate, he is still going to do everything to remain “Capo Oligarcho” & #1 gangster political figure in Russia.